LONGER RANGE FORECAST
By: Justin McHeffey
for Minot evacuation map
Click Here for complete City of Minot information
Click Here for Burlington flood map
Current Souris river level at Broadway bridge + forecast
High Wind Warning
1/25/2012
A very windy day in Minot! Wind gusts near 50mph are possible through the evening with sustained winds around 40mph. Conditions relax by tomorrow with cooler air moving into the region.
Tomorrow night our dry weather pattern changes. An Alberta Clipper slides southeast through the state and could produce light snow for us. As it looks now, 1-2 inch amounts will be common across the western third of North Dakota. Not a major storm, but enough to cause slick travel. Careful on the roads.
The Climate Prediction Center recently released the three month temperature and precipitation outlook. The climate forecast through April brings more of the same weather into the Northern Plains. Temps near or above normal, snowfall near or below normal. If you like the mild winter, this trend appears unbroken for the next few months.
Extreme Cold Warning
1/17/2012
The National Weather Service has issued an Extreme Cold Warning for the northern half of North Dakota from midnight tonight until noon on Thursday.
This is an advisory we see only a couple times per year. An arctic airmass invading the northern tier of the United States will cause temps to plummet over the next 48 hours. Expect daytime HIGHS 5-15 degrees below zero on Wednesday.
Combined with the frigid column of air will be gusty northwest winds. Expect a consistent breeze from the northwest well into Wednesday evening. Part of the Cold Warning takes into account windchill values. Some places could exceed windchills of 45 below zero late Wednesday into early Thursday.
Even brief periods of time outside can be dangerous if you`re not properly clothed. Dressing in layers really makes all the difference. Cover exposed skin as best you can to avoid frostbite. And, as important, pack a winter survival kit for your car.
The overnight lows on Wednesday may possibly be some of the coldest we see all year!
Winter Weather Advisory
1/11/2012
The blowing snow continues across central North Dakota. Expect travel delays and very cold temperatures through the rest of this evening. The National Weather Service has extended the Winter Weather Advisory until 8PM. Snow accumulations have been light but winds are still gusting over 40mph causing low visibility.
Temperatures drop below zero tonight along with stiff northwesterly winds. Wind chill values hover near 30 below across the northern third of the state. Cold!
More Like January
1/10/2012
The wintry weather took its sweet time getting here, but tonight it arrives. Expect much colder temps with snow tonight and Wednesday.
An eastbound clipper system over the Canadian border pulls very cold air into the region tonight. Windy conditions and blowing snow are likely through tomorrow afternoon. This prompted a Winter Weather Advisory by the National Weather Service until 4:00PM Wednesday. Snow amounts likely fall within the two inch range, along with reduced visibilities and frigid wind chills. One exception to the snow totals may occur east and southeast of Lake Sakakawea, however. Given the relatively warm, unfrozen water with arctic air moving overhead, higher lake effect accumulations could fall in Burleigh and Kidder counties.
Tune in at 6 & 10 for the latest!
Another Warm Week
1/2/2012
Early January looks a lot like late December. Warm, dry, and breezy. Tonight a warm front moves into North Dakota and will prevent temps from falling out of the 20`s. In fact, temps climb after midnight as Pacific air enters the state. So expect the coldest temps well before sunrise. Wind gusts tomorrow afternoon could approach 40mph. Other than that, the very calm and unseasonably mild weather continues.
Happy New Year!
12/30/2011
Expect a very windy holiday weekend with gusts near 60mph! A High Wind Warning is posted from 9:00 AM Saturday through 1:00 PM Sunday. Given the slick roads and snow in the forecast tonight, the blustery conditions will only add to hazardous travel. Temps this weekend fall into the 20`s, closer to average.
2011 dealt us wild weather of every sort. As for now, early 2012 looks mild and dry through the first week of January. Have a great holiday weekend and allow extra drive time!
Mixed Weather Clipper
12/29/2011
Did you double check the calendar this morning? Today felt much more like spring than winter. The combination of dense fog, rain, and light snow returns tomorrow. Expect Friday`s highs in the middle 30`s.
What`s preventing more snowfall? It`s simply too warm. The warm sector of low pressure systems is located on the leading edge, or east side of the storm. Just enough mild air was transported into central North Dakota today to keep substantial snow from developing, so we`re left with rain instead. Freezing rain was a concern earlier this morning, but again, the air wasn`t that cold near the ground. Most places around Minot easily broke the 30 degree mark this afternoon. Just below the clouds, a layer of warm air melted the flakes that fell to the ground as water. Later on, colder air should fill the column between the ground and the sky, giving us light snow accumulations by midnight. The northern half of North Dakota is under a Winter Weather Advisory until 12:00AM.
Strange December weather, no doubt. Please drive safe the roads are very slick!
12/23/2011
Christmas Forecast
Santa Clause won`t have any trouble riding into town this weekend. Clear skies and comfortable temps dominate our weekend weather with some locations close to record highs. The warmest Christmas in Minot happened in 1999 when we hit 48 degrees. We likely won`t see temps quite that high, but Sunday`s temps will certainly be among some of the warmest. If we reach 42 degrees, we`ll tie the fourth warmest Christmas temperature, originally set in 1928. Expect lots of sun and a breeze from the west.
Have a great time with your friends and family. Merry Christmas!
12/19/2011
Dry and Mild
No substantial snowstorms appear in the 7 day forecast. Instead, the unseasonably warm temperatures continue Tuesday highs near 40. If you`re wishing for a white Christmas, it doesn`t look likely. But if you`re traveling by plane or car this holiday weekend, the clear conditions are great news. Light snow is a possibility by Wednesday evening, but little to no accumulation is expected.
The weather isn`t this nice everywhere, though. Parts of the central and southern plains brace for a foot of snow or more tonight. The clipper systems that normally bring us the wild weather this time of year are too far north to impact the Minot area this week. Only brief spells of cooler air spill into the state for the next several days, with nice temperature rebounds at or above average.
Join us tonight!
12/16/2011
Beautiful Weekend!
After a string of cool temps and lots of fog this week, a mild weekend is on the way. Temps on Sunday could exceed 40 degrees, nearly 20 degrees above normal for December. Warmer winds blow in from the west and southwest for the next few days. Chances for light snow flurries return late on Sunday but it doesn`t look like anything will add up on the ground. Have a great weekend!
12/13/2011
Cool Down Coming
Overall a gray start to the work week with fog and lower clouds over much of the state. The light winds and minor activity in the atmosphere are to blame, but the story changes soon. By Wednesday and Thursday a storm system moves across southern sections of Canada. This should mix up the air for us and scour out the dense cloud cover. Also, winds change more northwesterly by tomorrow afternoon so expect colder temps Thursday and Friday. Late on Thursday we could pick up minor snowfall amounts, but the bulk of the moisture remains north of the border.
Beyond this week, nothing significant appears to be developing. The standard, cool December temps continue, with arctic air visiting from time to time.
12/9/2011
Mild Weekend, Changes Next Week
The title says it all. Temperatures jump several degrees Saturday as warmer air blows in from the south. Surface high pressure over eastern Nebraska will allow that mild return flow to fill into North Dakota. We feel the results tomorrow with highs in the upper 30`s. Average highs are in the middle 20`s this time of year.
Wednesday of next week could mark a change in the tranquil weather. A disturbance originating in the southwestern US may gain strength in the coming days and eventually travel into the high plains. If it takes a more northward track that could mean measurable snow for ND by late Wednesday and Thursday. For now the snow looks to remain south of our area but it`s worth the mention. Sometimes those Colorado-based storms bring the most snow for us because they tap into Pacific and Gulf moisture sources. Compared to an Alberta Clipper, of continental restriction, which normally brings lots of wind and less snowfall.
Get outside this weekend it`s going to be beautiful!
12/1/2011
Colder Next Week
Arctic air makes several trips onto the northern plains the next few days, with high temps dipping well below normal after the weekend. Right now it looks like morning lows on Monday will start in the single digits. A couple chances for snow remain in the forecast with a good shot at some accumulations by Saturday night.
Areas of patchy ice still cover some roadways so drive safe!
First Snow of the Year
11/15/2011
Sure, we`ve had a dusting here and there, but this morning`s 5 inch storm in Minot felt a lot more like winter! Road conditions are very slick and snow covered. Drive slow and allow extra travel time. Our temperature trend this week is on the cold side, so it`s unlikely much of this will melt between now and next week. On top of that, several chances for snow continue through the weekend, so the weather may get worse before it gets better.
Here`s and interesting comparison to last November and the major drop from seasonal normals. The week of November 15, 2010 showed a temperature slide from the 30`s to the teens over the course of seven days. This pattern is remarkably similar this year, and occurring on nearly identical dates. We`ll experience a gradual temperature decline through Saturday when highs end up around 18 degrees. Cold! Since we`re losing the higher solar angle that keeps us warm during the summer and fall, it`s no surprise temps at this latitude dive into the winter season. Interior parts of the continent this far north experience a frequent arctic influence, without the moderating effect the ocean can have on places like Seattle, also at a similar latitude.
Dress warm and put together a winter survival kit for your car!
Happy Veterans Day!
11/11/2011
Perfect conditions to celebrate the holiday! Light winds and highs in the low 50`s. You can`t ask for better weather in November. Cloud cover increases by tomorrow but mild temperatures abound. Late Saturday evening a cold front sweeps through the state bringing a chance of rain and snow to the region. A major cooling trend sets up mid-late next week with highs only in the 20`s on Friday! Enjoy the warm temps while they last!
Weekend Snow
10/31/2011
We`re still a few days out but our first substantial snowfall of the season looks poised to hit this weekend. Low pressure developing over the Pacific will supply the moisture, while cold temps already in place will allow the precip to fall as snow. There`s still some uncertainty surrounding the storm, locations affected and projected amounts are yet to be determined. For now, expect a temperature nose-dive with highs in the 30`s Saturday and Sunday. More details on the snow this week!
Winter Outlook
10/21/2011
The latest 2011-2012 winter climate projections were released yesterday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). General circulation features resemble a La Nina pattern, likely causing an extended period of colder than average temps and higher than average total snowfall December through March.
Why the repeat scenario? Like last year, abnormally cold sea surface temperatures have been observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. A long way from ND, this maritime departure from normal is felt across the world. The cooler waters cause a change in barometric pressure at the surface and aloft. Since the air becomes cooled from the ocean, it creates a blocking ridge in the jet stream. With high pressure occupying most of the eastern Pacific, the Polar Front Jet shifts northwesterly over the north central US on the leading edge of the ridge axis. This allows cold arctic air to frequently invade our region.
While battling the frigid air shuttled in from the Polar Front, there`s also the Variable Pacific Jet, or Pineapple Express. Sometimes the main upper level wind currents split in two near the Hawaiian Islands. This southern component of the jet stream transports oceanic moisture inland that becomes available for storms. Basically an area from the Oregon coast to the northern plains becomes the bulls-eye for heavy snow and rain.
Forecasting longer term events like these are very challenging. But unlike a 7 Day planner, there are often clues in the larger-scale wind patterns that offer guidance for the months ahead. Getting tomorrow`s weather PERFECT will never be easy, but predicting seasonal variation and climatological tendencies like La Nina are at times more obvious.
Quiet Weather Continues
10/18/2011
A cool breeze continues on the forward side of an area of surface high pressure over western North Dakota. Tomorrow that column of stable, sinking air drifts to the eastern portion of the state, but not before bringing us very chilly temperatures tonight. Lows in isolated locations could drop into the teens, however in Minot I think the mid 20`s are a good bet. Remember the tendency air has around high pressure systems, in a clockwise direction. So by tomorrow evening we`ll pick up on the return flow from the backside of that same area of high pressure. The stronger southerly influence will help temps back into the middle 50`s by the end of this week. Crank the heat in the car tomorrow morning!
Rare October T-Storms
10/13/2011
It`s been an interesting couple of days in the weather world considering the time of year. Fall thunderstorms are not unheard of in North Dakota, but they`re also not common. Usually the cooler temps and reduced sun angle prohibit parcels of air to rise like they do during the summer, so the past few days have been somewhat abnormal. However, the present mechanisms producing the rain have been powerful enough for taller cloud tops. Given the air temps today in the lower 50`s and dew points in the lower 40`s, there`s just enough low level moisture for convection. An area of low pressure in central ND is assisting the surface convergence as well. These thundershowers will likely taper off this evening as the sun goes down.
Slow Moving Low
10/10/2011
A gloomy Monday in North Dakota! The low pressure responsible for today`s rain is moving at a snail`s pace, nearly stationary until this afternoon. We`re still on the backside of the upper level circulation, so when you watch the precip movement on radar tonight you`ll notice a gradual counter clockwise spin. Winds continue southerly again tomorrow before our next front arrives Wednesday. Cooler temps by mid-week as the air blows in from the northwest behind the front. Temps drop a few degrees below average by then.
Tight Pressure Gradient!
10/7/2011
We certainly felt those winds in Minot today. Very deep low pressure to our west caused all the air to whip in from all directions. The isobars around that center of circulation were jammed together causing a very tight gradient on the surface. In less extreme events the wind travels parallel to the pressure bars, but not today. Perpendicular over many locations and very gusty indeed. Tomorrow as the low exits winds shift more westerly and eventually northwesterly so that will keep temps cool Saturday and Sunday. Have a great weekend!
Weekend Warm Up
9/29/2011
There`s no doubt about the cooler temps we felt today. Highs struggled into the low to mid 60`s thanks to a stiff breeze from the northwest. All that air is traveling down from Canada behind a cold front, so tonight will also feel chilly in the middle 30`s. Isolated areas of frost are possible, though it doesn`t look like a widespread threat. The change comes tomorrow afternoon as winds shift more southerly. The sunshine reigns again on Friday with temps gradually climbing into the weekend. We`re back to the 70`s in no time!
La Nina Returns!
9/22/2011
Here we go again! Colder than average temperatures are anticipated across the northern tier of the US once again this winter. Circulation features in the Pacific Ocean suggest another semi-permanent area of high pressure along and north of the equator, east of the International Date Line. Although this pattern resembles last year`s La Nina cycle, it is slightly less pronounced. It`s a good bet by December (perhaps late-November) the frigid temps will take over just like in 2010. However, unlike last year, our winter precipitation totals will fall closer to average.
Warm Temps Til Next Week
Sept. 8, 2011
Stable atmospheric conditions continue through this weekend with highs 15 degrees above normal. A large area of surface high pressure over the eastern Dakota`s is providing us with the warm, southeasterly breeze. Remember the wind flow around high pressure systems, in a clockwise direction. We`re benefiting from the return flow around the backside of that surface high pressure. "Benefiting" if you like this extension of July and August. For the Autumn-lovers among us, our weather pattern changes early next week. Cooler air moves in from Canada and air temperatures really respond by Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs next week curb off in the middle 60`s. I don`t know about you but I`m a fan of the cooler fall weather...
Cool Not Cold
Aug. 19, 2011
You may have a sick, momentary panic tomorrow morning when temps dip into the upper 40`s. "I`m not ready for fall." Fear not, plenty of summer is yet to come. By Sunday some locations flirt with 90 degrees under mainly sunny skies. A few chances of rain are possible by Monday, but I`m talking drops, not flakes yet, folks. Conditions today even had an autumn-like presence. Cool breezes from the west made it feel a tad chilly this morning. Our average high is 81 for this time of year. If we waver from that figure by 5 or 10 degrees it`s still seasonable as far as I`m concerned. Just slightly different from what the book says. So I`ll save the cold weather lingo until November. Once daytime highs struggle into the teens you know what that means... Earflaps.
Beautiful Summer Days
Aug. 9, 2011
Although it has been cooler than average the past few days, the sunny skies and billowing clouds paint a summery picture. Expect a warming trend by the middle of this week with dry conditions until Thursday. That`s when we see a slight pattern change. Winds blow in from the southwest by late Wednesday evening and we`ll all feel an increase in humidity by then. Look for dew points in the upper 50`s and lower 60`s Thursday afternoon. Thursday evening T-Storms? You bet.
Heat Wave
July 18, 2011
5:10PM
Look out for near record temperatures tomorrow. The highest recorded daytime high for July 19 is 99 degrees, we may exceed that by the afternoon. Also, humidity will be high on the charts. Combine the scorching air temperature with elevated dew points and our heat index values surpass 100 degrees. Here`s where safety becomes a concern. Heat stroke and exhaustion are two leading causes of weather-related deaths. If you don`t need to be outside for an extended period of time, don`t be. Take trips indoors periodically and crank the A.C. If you work construction or another job with extended hours outdoors, bring lots of water and take breaks in the shade.
T-storms are also possible through this week. You can really feel the instability outside right now. Abundant low level moisture with dew points in the 70`s, any disturbance passing through could trigger wild weather.
Tune in tonight and we`ll talk about the heat...wait til you see the overnight lows. Even those are hot!
River Levels
July 13, 2011
4:26PM
The Souris River keeps dropping, we`re nearly 10 feet below the highest recorded observation. As of this post, the reading at the Broadway Bridge reads 1552.39` above sea level. And although we`re down from the high water mark, standing water still permeates much of the valley. Pumping in the submerged areas will continue for days and weeks to come. Because of the extra levee systems and changing city elevations, we`re now faced with a ponding effect outside the natural river current.
On a more weather-related topic, it will be very hot this weekend! You can either wear flip flops or sandals...up to you.
Severe Weather Possible Friday
July 6, 2011
5:30PM
Just a heads up about what could be coming our way Friday evening. A warm front pushing into south central North Dakota with lots of unstable air available for wild weather. Meanwhile, a cold front tracking across eastern Montana advances into the state by Friday afternoon. Where the two airmasses meet (or collide) could be the focal point for threatening conditions. As of now the most organized thunderstorms are expected in a line from Minot to the southwest, eventually tracking east overnight.
Wind shear will be a major component to this outbreak, as it usually is with well-developed thunderstorm complexes. This brings the potential for hail and tornadoes to central North Dakota. Since the cloud deck is expected fairly low at around 1KM, this may allow those funnels to touch down more easily.
More info on the Evening and Night Reports!
Broadway Access
July 1, 2011
3:03PM
Travel is improving through Minot. From 3:00PM til 7:00PM tonight Broadway will be open. Beginning tomorrow, Broadway will be open from 7:00AM until 8:00PM. The other main route to north hill is on the Highway 83 bypass, but it`s often jammed when Broadway is closed. The water is still very high, but it will be great to see more roads opening in the coming weeks!
Road Closures
June 27, 2011
3:07PM
Water over roadways in and around Minot have made travel tedious. Use the Department of Transportation website for the latest highway information:
http://www.dot.nd.gov/travel-info/
Use the City of Minot website for closures in town:
http://www.minotnd.org/
Above the Record, Below the Crest
June 26, 2011
1:00PM
River levels are moving in the right direction. However, it`s important to remember this massive body of water will take a long time to recede. At around 11:00PM June 25, the water reached it`s highest value at 1561.72` above sea level. Since then, it has dropped by about one inch. Not a significant amount, but any downward movement is good news.
Rich Wisniewski learned an interesting fact today from a boat tour in Burlington. The flood waters are 68 degrees. Apparently, warmer than typical North Dakota floods. This situation is being evaluated by officials, they have suggested that city chemicals and local sewage ponds have kept the temperature higher. A nasty thought, no doubt. It`s also possible the water is warmer because this is rain runoff rather than snowmelt.
Boil orders have been made for the City of Minot and surrounding areas. Water main`s are being investigated, but all tap water is assumed unsafe to drink at this time. Donnybrook, Minot AFB, Tolley, Carpio, Kenmare, Berthold, Surrey, and all north Prairie Water customers are urged to boil their drinking water as well.
There is a press conference at 3:00PM today. We will broadcast that event live. Streaming coverage continues online.
Nearing the Crest
June 25, 2011
2:57PM
We`ve prepared for the worst all week, no denying that the face of Minot has changed. Our projected river crest is expected tonight at 1563.5`. The swift river current is unmistakable, but the natural river banks are completely underwater. Numbers are still coming in, but an estimated 3000 homes are submerged. 12,000 people are displaced, with additional property threatened on the periphery of all 9 evacuation zones.
Depending upon the neighborhood, the river`s movement changes all over town. In some locations the water is completely still, caught in between the primary and secondary river banks. Deep, stagnant ponds well outside the natural river flow. On the other hand, there are places in Central Minot with fast-moving water.
More info will be learned at this afternoon`s press conference at 3:00PM. Please donate locally if you can:
www.minotredcross.org
www.centerforcommunitygiving.com
Levees Breached
June 23, 2011
12:29PM
KMOT`s Jacob Kaucher shot exclusive areal footage from a plane today. Shocking images reveal widespread flooding as water overtops the augmented dike system. We`re playing that video as of this post.
Just a little info about the Souris River Valley...The river begins in south central Saskatchewan. Rafferty Dam near the town of Estevan, Saskatchewan released water at its capacity earlier this week. The river flows over the international border and into Lake Darling, about 15 miles northwest of Minot. Heavy rains and delayed snowmelt in Canada lead to this surge of water. In response to the incoming volume of river water and runoff, the Lake Darling Dam is releasing upwards of 18,000CFS at this time (6/23). By tomorrow, the flow will be increased to 28,000CFS. Normally, this figure is less one quarter in June, closer to 5,000CFS. The town of Burlington is located west of Minot and first to experience the increased water flow. Today, primary levee systems in Burlington are being further reinforced, but questions remain about their effectiveness. Currently in Minot, the Souris has reached 1555.66` above sea level. The highest river levels are expected in Minot Saturday morning, June 25. If the hydrologic predictions are correct, the Souris will reach between 1563-1566 above sea level at Minot`s Broadway bridge. This value is 5-8 feet higher than the record level set in January, 1881.
The biggest difference in the river today is visible breaching. Areas of central Minot are under water. Homes and streets flooded. A turning point in the events because this part of town is the most densely populated. The Army Corps of Engineers and National Guard have reinforced the primary river banks with several feet of dirt. Those efforts are compromised today.
Slow, Painful Flood
June 22, 2011
4:39PM
Until today, this flood has been an anticipation. Now the seriousness is visible. Flooded structures and roadways abound, and the worst is yet to come. The sequence of events over the past 3 days shows unwavering support by the National Guard, volunteers, and city leaders. The tremendous volume of water continues down the Souris Valley, breaching weaker levees in the western and central areas of Minot.
All residents in the evacuation zones are required to leave immediately. If you`re still in your home, take what valuables you can and leave now.
Increased releases out of Lake Darling tomorrow will result in an additional 8 feet of water above the current level at Minot`s Broadway bridge. This high crest will likely happen Monday evening. Further downstream in Sawyer, expect this massive volume by the middle of next week.
Post photos to KMOT.com, facebook.com/kmottv or shoot me an email: jmcheffey@kmot.com
Stay alert, and tune in for the latest updates!
Rafferty and Lake Darling Dams
June 21, 2011
8:30PM
New information from the upper Souris Valley. Rafferty Dam in Saskatchewan is releasing water at or near its capacity. 18,000CFS is currently moving out of the reservoir near Estevan, eventually traveling into Lake Darling.
By June 26 the highest volume of water is expected to flow into Lake Darling. At the same time, engineers have opted to release a lower flow to reduce the flood threat downstream. Controlled outflow from the dam is expected to reach 20,300CFS from June 26 through July 2. The water level in Minot is projected to remain within the major flood category well into next week.
All figures released by local officials. Click the links above for the latest updates.
Flood Continued...
June 21, 2011
Information learned from Burlington`s press conference last night:
-By Thursday evening, June 23 upstream water releases will reach Minot. A sharp spike in river levels occurs by Thursday evening.
-Water released from Lake Darling will reach 18,700CFS by Monday morning. Flows will continue at this volume for 6 days thereafter.
-Sandbagging continues in Burlington to raise levees and reinforce river banks. Prepared for 15,000CFS as of now.
-Mandatory evacuations remain in effect for central Minot along the Souris River. Also, mandatory and recommended evacuations remain for portions of Burlington.
Latest Flood Info
June 20, 2011
4:51 PM
Today`s press conference revealed critical information about the Souris River in Minot. At the moment, Lake Darling is releasing 9000 CFS. By Thursday morning, this number will be increased to 16000 CFS. Recent heavy rains in Canada have prompted the higher volume flow out of Lake Darling.
At Minot`s Broadway Bridge, the current level is 1553.32` above sea level. The new rush of water will cause the Souris to rise 10 feet above its current level in Central Minot. The record-breaking projection Sunday evening is 1563` above sea level. In response to this threat, local officials are mandating evacuation of all zones along the river. Secondary levees are being reinforced seven extra feet to help intercept the new rising water. River water is expected to overtop the natural river banks by the end of this work week.
Here`s a comparison of historical river heights. In 1881, the Souris reached 1558` above sea level. This weekend the river is forecast to exceed that level by 5 feet. Or, if you look at the river at the time of this post, add 10 feet of water. That`s the projected height coming this weekend.
More info as it becomes available...
New Water Level
June 14, 2011
3:54PM
The NWS just released new river predictions at the Minot Broadway Bridge. By early Friday morning, the Souris is expected to crest at 1554.1` above sea level. This figure is about 1 inch greater than the high water mark left two weeks ago. A press conference was scheduled at 4:00pm today, then later canceled for further evaluation of the river.
Today at KMOT, an additional .30" of rain fell as of this post. One piece of good news (for us) is that the heaviest rain has fallen well southeast of Minot. Streeter, ND in Stutsman County picked up 2.63" this afternoon. If amounts like that fell in Minot or to the northwest, the ripple effect would be palpable here in town.
All Eyes on the Souris
June 9, 2011
4:55PM
Another reminder to everyone living in the former "Evacuation Zones", the Souris River will rise again this weekend. The highest recorded level last week was 1554.02` above sea level, hard to believe that we may come within 8 inches of that figure by Sunday afternoon. The additional rainfall expected this weekend and controlled releases from Lake Darling obviously don`t help the flood situation.
The potential is there for thunderstorms this weekend, local accumulations and runoff could aggravate the Souris River predictions. It`s not fun playing the waiting game, especially if you`re in a high profile area near the water. Above all, stay weather ready, consult the NWS site, and tune in to our newscasts...We`ll keep you ahead of the flood anytime new info is available!
Late-Week Rain
June 8, 2011
6:39PM
Rain is in the forecast for late Thursday night into Friday. Given the storm over central North Dakota this past Tuesday, obviously it raises concerns about the Souris River in Minot. There is a chance we`ll pick up about .50" of liquid precipitation by the end of this work week. Several factors still contribute to the water levels and volume here in town. Dam releases upstream will cause the Souris to rise near 1553.2` above sea level by Monday afternoon. That figure includes runoff from the rain storm early this week, and an increased flow out of Lake Darling.
Lots depends on how much rain we pick up in the coming days. The hydrologic projections account for new water entering the valley, but as we know weather can be a fickle business.
Tune in for updated forecasts and information about the frequently fluxuating Mouse River!
8:02PM
June 2, 2011
Souris River Flood
City leaders and flood emergency officials held a press conference in Minot this evening to discuss projected levels along the river. New hydrologic predictions were also released by the National Weather Service this afternoon. The forcasted values bring the Souris River crest at Minot`s Broadway bridge down to 1555 feet above sea level. This number has been reduced from an earlier estimate of 1556.5 feet above sea level. The city of Burlington is currently experiencing a 2 foot surge of water, up from earlier this afternoon. Higher CFS released from the Lake Darling Dam and the recent crest along the Des Lacs River in Foxholm have caused water levels to rise in Burlington. Based on information from the Mayor of Burlington and the Army Corps of Engineers, the reinforced levee system will effectively contain the higher volume of water. The increased flow will reach Minot by tomorrow afternoon. Local officials are optimistic about conditions along the Souris River in Minot. Attention has been shifted from the construction of secondary dikes to augmenting the pre-existing banks along the Souris in Minot. Volunteers and water control agents continue piling sandbags and dirt along the river. Great news that the projections have been lowered, bad news that we have thunderstorms in the forecast. Guarded optimism are the words of the day.
4:32 PM
May 27, 2011
Memorial Day Blues
Heavy rain is in the forecast later on this holiday weekend. As of now, I`m anticipating scattered showers through noon Saturday and a temporary window of dry weather early Sunday. Our next storm collects itself very early Memorial Day with widespread rain likely for central North Dakota. Although a few days out, this system`s dynamics show the potential for 1-2 inches of precipitation here in Minot.
Bring an extra tarp to the campgrounds this weekend...and keep the firewood dry!
4:31PM
May 19, 2011
Weekend Rain
The weather pattern change I`ve been talking about all week finally arrives tonight. Heavy rain moves into the state in two distinct waves. The first hits central and northwestern North Dakota early Friday morning, with scattered showers continuing through the day. A second dose comes late Friday night into early Saturday morning. By the time all the precip exits, local amounts will likely fall within the 1.5-2.5 inch neighborhood, with isolated areas picking up slightly more. Hydrologists at the National Weather Service have determined that currently the ground can absorb about one half inch of rain in a 6 hour period. If the water continues falling consistently after that threshold has been passed, runoff with could become an issue in lower lying areas.
Tune in tonight, I`ll break down where I think the most rain will fall!
3:23PM
May 5, 2011
May and June Outlook
The La Nina pattern continues across the US into the early part of this summer.
Here in North Dakota, temperatures are trending slightly below normal while precipitaion totals have a good chance of exceeding average. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific remain only SLIGHTLY cooler than normal from about 160E to 140W longitude. This suggests the circulation regime is moderating due to a less amplified ridge of blocking high pressure in the equatorial pacific. I`m summarizing some of the text and data produced by NOAA`s Climate Prediction Center.
A return to more seasonable air temperatures and rainfall looks possible by the end of June and early July. But before we get there, the later part of spring is typically the wettest time of the year. Coupled with the ocean temps and jet stream tendency at this time, it might be another gray and rainy May overall.
What an uplifting final sentence.
3:21PM
April 29, 2011
Yet Another Spring Snow Storm
Sigh. I`m tired of the wintry weather also. As usual, several elements dictate the placement and amount of heaviest snowfall. This time of year snow storms are particularly difficult to forecast because of air and surface temperatures. The upper-air and surface data shows the cold front moving slower than originally predicted. This has obvious implications on the amount and type of precip that falls.
If the cold air arrives sooner, as in before 6:00 tonight, we have a better chance of significant snowfall. If it arrives closer to the midnight hour, I don`t believe we will pick up as much. However, still substantial for the month of April. Given the mild temps this week most area roadways are tepid, therefore the snow will have a harder time sticking. At this point Minot and areas north-northeast will see the most moisture. The key word being moisture...frozen or liquid, and beginning at what time. One thing that is a near-guarantee, it will be a nasty day tomorrow. Winds pick up vigorously through the evening as the surface low pressure strengthens.
More water on the ground=more areal flooding. Turn around don`t drown!
April 21, 2011
High Pressure and Rain
Today`s weather is strongly influenced by an area of high pressure over the upper Midwest. Several light-moderate bands of rain have passed through central ND this afternoon and will continue again tomorrow. Normally high pressure indicates a stable, subsiding airmass, so why are we experiencing these wet conditions?
General circulation around an area of high pressure is clockwise, as opposed to counter clockwise with low pressure systems. Given the position of this feature over the Great Lakes region, it`s western extension is moving in a southerly direction. That would be, from the south to the north. This is called "return flow" on the backside of the dominant high. Look at a national map to get an idea about the scope of this pattern. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is transported through the atmosphere and arrives on the northern plains. In a way, this movement of air is similar to the eastern component of a Colorado Low.
Today`s showers are associated with a layer of stratiform clouds blanketing the area. Compared to towering cumulonimbus, these aren`t as vertically impressive. Because of their relatively flat structure, stratus/nimbostratus don`t produce as much liquid precipitation. However, since these clouds typically move slowly, they can saturate an area for days.
Ready for the weekend or what?
April 1, 2011
Rain, Snow, and Migraines
If the flooding concerns around Minot weren`t already at a maximum, this weekend`s storm will certainly raise a few eyebrows. Low water to snow ratios are expected with this system, and that`s bad news during the spring thaw. Air temperatures are expected to hover close to 32 degrees, which means the flakes will be large with high moisture content. Based on new model data released this afternoon, the heaviest amounts will fall along the Canadian border, extending about 50 miles north and south of that line. My gut feeling (very scientific) tends to agree with this solution because the dynamics are present for stronger upward vertical motion in this region.
The upper air patterns indicate well organized counter clockwise circulation at 700mb with enough divergence to produce heavy, consistent snowfall through Sunday. Given the relatively warm air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, the ratios could come close to 12:1. Meaning 12 inches of snow for every one inch of water. Snow depths in isolated areas could top 1 foot, resulting in an additional inch of frozen water. Considering the precariousness of local river levels, thumbs down for this storm.
Mar. 22, 2011
Spring Blizzard
It`s here! Take one look outside and you know we`re in for deep snowfall totals. The Winter Storm Warning issued yesterday has been upgraded to a Blizzard Warning in response to near-zero visibility in places. The heavy, wet snow is coming down in sheets combined with winds exceeding 35mph. Local amounts could top the 12" mark with drifting snow several feet high. Bottom line, stay inside.
Several factors contribute to this system`s intensity. The center of circulation originated in Colorado, as opposed to Alberta, that explains higher total snow depth. Clipper systems are born in the lee (eastern) side of the Canadian Rockies. Because of the geographic separation from the Pacific Ocean imposed by the mountains, those storms usually produce only moderate snowfall along with very gusty winds. Today`s storm is different because of its relative proximity to the Gulf of Mexico.
Imagine the counter clockwise flow around a Colorado Low Pressure System. The eastern edges of that circulation manage to pull warm, unstable air from the Gulf. As that moisture travels north and merges with cooler air in Canada, it`s forced aloft and the result is heavy snow.
Given the instability in the atmosphere, and almost limitless opportunity for the clouds to grow tall, there is a chance we`ll experience thundersnow. It`s rare, but illustrative of the organization and magnitude of this spring storm.
Mar. 17, 2011
Happy St. Patrick`s Day!
A windy one indeed across central North Dakota. Ward county managed to skirt the wind advisory posted for areas to our south, but you can tell it`s blustery in Minot without all that pomp and circumstance. When gusts reach the 45mph mark they can occasionally be destructive...but mainly it`s just a nuisance. Something to keep you on your toes from the grocery store to your car. That`s a lot of fun when you`re holding a case of soda a birthday cake.
My only real word of caution tonight comes after midnight...temps cool down below freezing so a lot of the melted snow runoff will refreeze. Black ice on the roadways is our worst enemy this time of year.
Otherwise our next storm system arrives late Saturday and into Sunday that could bring widespread rain and snow to the region. Tune in tonight for the details!
Have a great St. Patty`s Day!
Mar. 7, 2011
Skywarn Training
It`s that time of the year again! Can you believe severe weather season is right around the corner? I`ll pass along the dates and times of scheduled meetings as they become available. For now, Mohall hosts the first one of the year tomorrow night March 8th at 7:00PM.
This is the address:
EMS Facility 104 Central Ave N
I attended Minot`s Skywarn meeting last April and truly learned a lot about local severe weather history, Dickinson`s destructive 2009 tornado, preparedness, and the like.
Anyone from the public is encouraged to join the event. You`ll learn lots about thunderstorm development and tips for keeping yourself safe. If that doesn`t do it for you...sometimes they have popcorn:)
Feb. 25, 2011
Snow Possible through Next Week
Temperatures warm up slightly this weekend as winds shift to a more zonal, or westerly pattern. This will act to erode the frigid column of high pressure now dominating the region. As for next week...just a few minor disturbances pass through the atmosphere with slight chances of snow clear into the weekend. None of the activity looks too threatening as of now and any accumulations should be minor. Looking beyond the next seven days becomes more difficult in terms of precipitation. But one thing is for sure...there`s plenty of cold air still looming to our north. Early and mid-March likely continue colder than normal. So that gets a thumbs down. But something I always find positive about this time of year is the increased daylight. Yes, we have cabin fever from the sub-zero temps and snow, but, the drive to and from work every day gets a little brighter.
Feb. 16, 2011
Early Season Flooding
Our nice February thaw ends today, but not without causing local problems in Rolette county. Water levels in Ox Creek near Belcourt are very high in the wake of our abnormally warm temperatures and resulting snow melt. So far, the town hospital and dialysis center have taken in water with several homes at risk as well. A combination of ice-jamming and accelerated melting have caused overflow at Belcourt Lake. Sandbagging is in progress along Ox Creek where residences are threatened by rising water. If you`re in the area and want to kill an hour or two I`m sure the Belcourt folks would love a few volunteers!
Feb. 3, 2011
Souris River Flood Potential
During the Ag-Expo last week I mentioned the latest long-range flood forecasts for North Central ND. Just wanted to spend a moment and break down some of that data.
Yes, we have a lot of snow on the ground in Minot, and across most towns bordering the Souris River...something I`m sure you`ve noticed. The still-frozen water content remains at or above average for this time of year. That`s where the concern comes in. More snow=greater flood probability in area rivers and drainages.
Several towns stand out regarding the likelyhood of excessive water levels. Towner, Bantry, Sherwood, and Willow City`s neighboring Willow Creek. In these places moderate to major flood conditions are a strong possibility. And although this winter has produced more snow than usual, it`s not the first time North Dakota has braced for a muddy spring. Properties closest to the rising river are obviously at the greatest risk, but Nick tells me some farmers don`t mind the spring runoff because it creates a reserve of moisture below the surface. During the hot, dry late-summer months crops can tap this "bank" and stay healthy. Perhaps that is the silver lining.
It`s nice working with a veteran farmer that knows a thing or two about the growing season. I`m a city boy, so in most conversations I can only offer flak and insults. But don`t worry, most of them are directed at Jacob K.
Jan. 24, 2011
Below Normal Temps, Above Normal Precipitation
That`s the latest headline from the Climate Prediction Center. February-April is trending cooler than average, while snow and rainfall totals are projected higher than average. So, really...it`s just more of the same. Spring flooding concerns obviously remain for eastern North Dakota, and with the mentioned climatic forecasts, there`s no real sense of solice. If the air temperature remains colder for an extended period with additional snowfall, the Red River Valley becomes inundated more quickly once the snow melts. That is, assuming we rebound with warm mid-late spring temps. In a year with conditions closer to average the snow pack recedes gradually through spring. The latest precip outlooks further confirm the likelihood of a high water table and saturated areas, but the temperature models might make timing difficult to assess...or at least push the threat of flooding further into the season.
Jan. 19, 2010
Ready for the Cold?
Tonight`s expected low temps are shaping up to be the coldest of this winter thus far. Many of us flirting with 20 below zero. You could really feel that wind shift by around 8 PM...the arctic air has arrived!
Jan. 12, 2011
Tonight`s Lows
It`s always interesting when our temperatures become warmer overnight. Ordinarily, the coldest conditions of the day come right before sunrise, or just as it`s visible on the eastern horizon. Not the case tonight...We gradually warm up through the evening as southerly winds blow into the region. Our low temperature of -12 already occurred today in Minot around 8:00 this morning, but as that milder airmass moves in tonight we`ll climb back to the single digits.
Jan. 4, 2011
Projecting Snowfall
I`ve been working at KMOT for almost a year, and by now have experienced the extremes of all four seasons. It hasn`t gotten particularly cold yet, at least not by ND standards, but in terms of active weather I`ve seen the gamut. Tornadoes, softball hail, flash floods, and blizzards. Since the cold air arrived in mid-November, I have found that my absolute favorite things to forecast are snowstorms. For a few interesting reasons...
As you`d expect, the atmosphere behaves differently in the winter compared to the summer. Thunderstorms develop according to several variables: air temperature aloft, vertical and horizontal pressure gradients, and humidity to name the basics. All those dynamics are usually apparent because radiosondes collect the data twice a day. But, as you may have noticed, severe thunderstorms often erupt with much less warning time than snowstorms. Waves of energy move slower when the atmosphere is colder. Therefore in the winter we can evaluate the skies and make predictions for inclement weather within a broader time-frame.
Take last week`s storm for example (the blizzard that closed I-94). Medium and longer range computer models advertised that system over a week beforehand. Sure, in the summer you`ll hear myself and others say "nasty weather possible next week", but the areas affected always seem a little more vague. There was high confidence last week that a major storm was on the way, and, it happened.
So here`s why I like forecasting snow the most. With the extra time available before a storm arrives, it`s easier to determine the locations affected. The final analysis is more comprehensive because it builds on all the solutions leading up to the event. Making an accurate prediction is very hard, don`t get me wrong. But especially last week, adjusting the snow projections was very exciting as the storm unfolded.
Dec. 29, 2010
Snow Update
As expected, the Winter Storm Watch from yesterday has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Essentially, heavy snow and very gusty winds within a shorter time-frame. Two major components driving the storm, moisture to our west with low pressure centered southwest of Dickinson.
The Glasgow, MT. NWS office just issued a Blizzard Warning to accommodate near-zero visibility from the frigid, unforgiving winds. Model solutions are pointing that way for us as well, but not until late tonight. Windy conditions are a guarantee, but whether we reach Blizzard criteria is still debatable.
I`ll give you the latest at 6 & 10!
Dec. 28, 2010
Powerful Winter Storm
The variables are coming together for a significant snowstorm through the later part of this week. I mentioned the profile of this system last night in the 10 o`clock newscast. Still have the same confidence in widespread nature of the storm, but nailing down local totals is difficult.
Here`s what I`m going with for now...As much as 10 inches are possible for the northern third of the state by Friday morning. In Minot, the 6-8 inch range seems more fitting. It`s an interesting progression of events in the atmosphere. The pacific moisture now blanketing western and central Montana will collide with an upper level low pressure system exiting the front range of Colorado.
For now, the National Weather Service has all of North Dakota under a Winter Storm Watch, as forecasts favor heavy snow and wind. Stay tuned to our nightly broadcasts and check this page as the storm unfolds. I`ll post updates through the week...
Dec. 21, 2010
Snowy Holiday Travel
Most roadways across north central North Dakota are snow covered thanks to yesterday`s storm. A few light snow showers continue in Bottineau and Wells counties this morning, but additional accumulations will be minor.
Here`s a quick summary of that wintry system: lots of snow in a short amount of time. Totals in Minot hovered around the 7-8 inch range, but Williston and Tioga came close to 1 foot. Residential streets are still dicey for smaller cars, but the plows have cleared most of the major roads in town. Be safe if you`re traveling for the holidays...that black ice works in disguise.
Dec. 16, 2010
The Storm that Wouldn`t Leave
The unfettered determination of this week`s snow storm to really slow down traffic is seen rarely. Local amounts along Highway 2 between Towner and Devils Lake exceeded 10 inches. For a better part of the day "No Travel Advised" was the headline, and additional accumulations overnight showed the interesting behavior of this system.
Several variables explain why the snow lasted as long as it did. In southwestern North Dakota a relatively warm, moist airmass filled into the state. While a cooler Canadian front was stationary from central Alberta through the northern plains. Given those characteristics, the skies were primed. Vertical forcing of the air and temperature profiles in the mid and upper troposphere suggested widespread coverage. Three days prior to the storm it was clear our region was in for significant amounts, but the duration of snow was harder to forecast.
Generally, the movement of low pressure systems are from west to east, a zonal flow. But a blocking pattern across eastern Canada prevented the above mentioned Alberta low from advancing further east. Think of it as an atmospheric bottleneck. Since the weather over New Brunswick and Quebec was pushing back to the west, all the precip associated with our storm couldn`t exit the state.
Dec. 9, 2010
Cold Blast this Weekend
High temps Sunday won`t make it above zero, but our overnight lows Saturday are more remarkable. Wind chill values approach minus 30 while the air temperature drops at least fifteen degrees below zero. After the northerly breeze shifts directions by mid-week temperatures moderate into the teens and lower 20`s. Our best chance to feel more seasonable conditions comes Wednesday, but even that warming trend is short-lived. Fortunately, our 10-15 day outlook suggests more mild daytime highs the week before Christmas.
Nov. 29, 2010
Light Snow Starts the Week
The blowing snow and reduced visibilities were enough to prompt a Winter Weather Advisory for most of North Dakota today. But try to nail down an exact snow total and you`ll find yourself with "ruler holes" all over the back yard. Some of the drifts exceed 2 feet near buildings, while you can almost see the grass if you`re out in the open. As of this afternoon 2-3 new inches can be found around Minot depending what slope you live on.
The blustery conditions continue tonight and tomorrow with wind chill values well below zero. The heaviest amounts associated with this storm bypassed western North Dakota, however. Central and Northern Minnesota could see as much as 12 inches before this system vacates the region.
Travel isn`t easy in the Northern Plains, but the weather down south is much worse. Cool air trailing this low pressure is sweeping severe thunderstorms into the lower Mississippi River Valley today.
Nov. 19, 2010
Temps Take a Dive
You can`t use the word "cold" loosely in North Dakota, it`s all relative. But when you consider our average temperature of 32 degrees this time of year, next week`s highs certainly qualify. The arctic air mass in control of the region next week causes the mercury to plunge near zero with overnight temps well below. Now, since I`m a newcomer to the state please humor me for a moment...By November standards, it will be cold Tuesday and Wednesday. But think of it only as a prelim departure from average. When the bone-chilling, mid-January air hits, I`m sure next week will seem tropical.
Nov. 12, 2010
Cooler with Snow Next Week
I just read an update from the National Weather Service about longer range forecasts into next week. An upper level disturbance originating in western Canada will descend on the northern plains late this weekend. That means below average temperatures and above average precipitation are likely before Thanksgiving. I don`t want to call this an Alberta Clipper just yet, however. Mainly because it`s not moving terribly fast and its effect on temperatures will be modest. Only a few degrees below normal opposed to the dramatic drops we experience in January.
Here`s some background about my experience with snow storms and winter weather...
I spent my teens living in Colorado, and, as you`ve heard, the front range gets lambasted from time to time with heavy snow. Having grown up as a skier my reactions to major snow storms were always excited. Lots of snow = no school and a powder day on the mountain, the consensus among sullen pupils. But up here I`ve heard adverse opinions about wild winter weather. Travel is dangerous, the added wind is obnoxious, and the frigid air penetrates.
On the nasty days my clicker (advances the graphics) goes missing around 5:55PM, right before the broadcast. Jim is very clever and likes to see me lose my mind.
Nov. 2, 2010
Breezy Autumn Day
This is prime voting weather. Lots of people like a white Christmas...some want a warm, sunny fourth of July...others like the leaves back by Easter. But November 2nd`s weather hardly gets any attention. It`s a nationally observed date, but you never hear about "good polling conditions". Until now...63 degrees was the high today in Minot with crisp winds from the west and lots of sun in the sky. Seems like the closest thing to perfect fall voting weather.
OK, so now we have a template for elections...I`ll come up with something for Flag Day...maybe even Bastille if I have time.
Drivel? Perhaps.
Oct.28, 2010
Calm After the Storm
Ready for a nice tranquil weather pattern? Lots of sun and a gradual warming trend begin this weekend. No major systems are anticipated over the next 10 days, that means were back to the autumn temps we all know and love...
Just a few interesting facts about the storm that rolled through yesterday. We tied the .33" record daily maximum precipitation. The last time that much water fell on October 28 was in 1984. Keep in mind that`s after the conversion from snow to rain.
Here`s another stat that really got me: the lowest mainland minimum central pressure in a non-tropical US storm. That sounds like a jumbled mess, let me explain. That perfectly pronounced center of circulation in northern Minnesota had a barometric pressure lower than most category 3 hurricanes, 28.24". Wow! Some people like the coffee can analogy...imagine getting home from the super market and opening a can of Folgers (that`s what I drink). The can makes a hollow sound effect describing the higher pressured air in your kitchen filling into the lower pressured container, a natural property of air. Apply the same concept to the atmosphere. A very low pressured column of air to our east and relatively high pressure to our west. The result: wind that knocks you sideways.
Oct. 18, 2010
Nice Week Ahead
The fall season`s temperatures have finally arrived, and we`ve got a nice stretch of mild, sunny weather in store this week. This is my first winter in North Dakota (insert jab here) and everyone around the station says it`s rare we actually experience "autumn". The very cold air usually descends from Canada early, so the transition from summer to winter happens almost overnight. That`s not the case yet, temps trend just above average into next weekend. I will say it`s amazing how quickly the foliage came and went, that string of cool temps towards the end of September did the trick. Oh well, we`ll be covered in snow before we know it. Rob Martin and I have talked about going to Huff Hills or Bottineau to ski this winter. It`s not the Rockies, but I`m sure you can catch a powder day now and then.
Oct. 11, 2010
New Weather Pattern
It has been a few weeks since we`ve seen a dramatic change in the forecast. Temps held strong above average thanks to a nice arc in the jet stream extending well into central Canada. This really kept the storm systems at bay here in the northern plains. Most of the rain these past few weeks developed either up the tail or down the nose of that ridge. So for portions of the southwest and eastern Great Lakes regions, more precipitation fell thanks to the upper level winds pushing those low pressure centers around. The air in North Dakota stayed warm and dry under the influence of high pressure, that really prevented even a single cloud from forming.
As for the future, a more pronounced cold front passes through tonight, so we have a better chance of showers. But don`t worry, the moisture will be short-lived as high pressure builds in again by mid-week. Not quite as warm this coming weekend, but we`ll have another day or two in the 70`s, so bask while you can. And what exactly does basking look like? I`ve said it a few times on air...but I`m not sure what qualifies true "basking". I get the feeling you have to flap your arms or something. I`m here all week.
Beautiful Flight
Oct. 2, 2010
To all that love mountains and geography...
Last summer (2009) I flew from Los Angeles to Seattle for a short trip and got one of the best views of my life. Now, for anyone that knows I`ve lived in both Montana and Colorado, this is a bold statement. Traveled all over this country by air and road, and until last year I overlooked the beautiful Pacific corridor. Jagged terrain, winding narrow canyons, and lush rainforests sprawl the western edge of the US. Many know the text book description as the "Pacific Rim", an area of tectonic rage that formed some of the most spectacular ranges and rifts in the world. I`m pretty obsessed with topographic and regional maps...that`s what made this flight so rewarding, I could actually identify every mountain.
Once you`ve cleared through the smoggy, pretentious, SoCal air you nearly graze every peak from Whitney to Rainier. An interesting fact about Mt. Whitney: it stands as the highest point in our contiguous 48 states, while less than 100 miles away Death Valley marks the lowest. And as the volcanic towers rise into the sky around Yosemite National Park, they are spaced enough for a breath in between. Not as densely packed as the central Rockies. Also, far in the distance beyond the left wing, you can faintly make out the Ocean which adds perspective...while airborne you can see the Lake Tahoe-area formations to the east, and get a glimpse of outer San Francisco to the west. You pass Mt. Shasta and neighboring wilderness, some of which holds snow through July. Then you`re over the border, greeted by Oregon`s "Three Sisters" geologic suite. This tri-tipped canvas of rock and mineral deposits is dwarfed by it`s northern extension, Mt. Jefferson. If Bob Ross needed a template mountain for his paintings, this would be the one. A perfect apex complimented by glaciers scraping through the ground below. Next is Mt. Hood, by now you`re slightly desensitized, but it`s beautiful nevertheless. And finally, the plane quickly descends with snapshots of Mt. Adams and Mt. St. Helens in Washington. You get the idea...very pretty sights, perhaps moreso if you really love the outdoors.
My only regret: Had an aisle seat...I think the window passengers were tired of me breathing on them.
Autumnal Equinox
September 23, 2010
Today marks the first full official day of the fall season...but conditions outside more closely resemble late spring. Lots of rain the past 2 days here in the Magic City. As of this post, I`ve measured 1.40" of rain in the past 48 hours. That`s nearly our entire average monthly precipitation for September!
For anyone interested, I`ll boil down what the autumnal equinox actually means in the simplest way I can. Those of you who already know, feel free to critique:)
The Earth`s axis is tilted 23.5 degrees--for this reason and our relationship with the Sun we experience different seasons. As our position in orbit changes during the 365 day revolution, so does the concentration and angle of sunlight hitting our planet. For instance, on September 22 and March 22 the Sun`s rays are in direct alignment with the equator ("Equinox"). While on the summer solstice (June 22) the Tropic of Cancer, in the northern hemisphere, receives direct sunlight. Consider how far north we are in Minot, and how far away the tropics are...never does the 48th parallel cross the Sun`s central plane. Therefore, light hitting the surface in North Dakota is always filtered through multiple layers of atmosphere, which, in effect, protect us from harmful shortwave radiation, or UV rays.
Those dates on the calendar that signify each changing season describe how the Earth is titled and it`s relationship with the sun. Points under the highest intensity of sunlight enjoy the warm season, while those tipped furthest away cool down. When temps dive in the coming months you`ll know the southern hemisphere has a sunward bias, while we lean towards outer space. In reference to the earlier post about a colder than average winter on the way...buy a new scarf, we`ll feel the tilt more than usual.
September 13, 2010
Winter Season and La Nina
I`ve been reading the Climate Prediction Center`s long range forecasts for the winter and learned a few interesting things...thought I`d share some with you.
Based on the sea surface temperatures in the equatorial pacific it looks like the 2010/2011 winter season will be cooler than average on the northern plains. So how do the low latitudes affect our weather in North Dakota?
This year, and possibly next year, a La Nina pattern will alter atmospheric circulation. Cooler sea surface temperatures are projected along the Pacific Ocean`s eastern periphery, while warmer water pushes in around Southeast Asia. If you`re a weather buff (how do you become a buff? G.C.) you know that warmer ocean temps assist storms. Low pressure systems develop over western waters and high pressure dominates the east.
This gradient reinforces easterly trade winds along the equator and directs the polar jet stream over a ridge in the northern and central pacific.
Okay, for those not asleep yet...here`s a smiley:) I can`t afford snickers. The jet stream is the bullet point of this post: dry, continental polar air will make regular visits into our region. Temps will fall below average through the winter months. At this point I tend to think precipitation will fall below average as well. With one caveat: the Farmer`s Almanac calls for a blizzard at the end of January. Did you read that?
August 10, 2010
This is the maiden voyage of my new blog, Justin`s Corner. Hold on to your hats.
Lets shed some light on the large elephant in the room...a volatile 2 month weather pattern across western North Dakota. It started in mid June (arguably earlier) with our record daily maximum rainfall of 3.75 inches. Runoff inundated intersections and flooded the Magic City High School gym. On almost a daily basis radar revealed severe thunderstorms and several confirmed tornadoes that barreled across the state through July. And still, as we begin August, the trend continues with warmer than average temperatures and wild weather region wide. What does this say about our long range forecast?
Reaching only into Autumn, local rainfall will remain close to average while temperatures remain slightly above through October. Pressure systems "slow down" by mid fall as the waves of energy become longer. So literally as temps drop so too will the frequency of active weather. We should reach a more balanced pattern that continues through November although the cold air will spill in by then. I won`t project our winter conditions just yet, but it seems the summer-like temps will extend beyond late September.
Did I just put my foot in my mouth? Find out at 6 & 10.
Justin McHeffey
Weather Director
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